We followed traders to learn the market.
Following taught us the book from the inside: how it fills, what a fill costs, when to stand and when to leave. That is the part you cannot read your way into.
Closed access · Signal-based execution on prediction markets
You choose the trader.
We do the trading.
We treat the trader you pick as a signal and run our own strategy on your account: our prices, our timing. Prediction markets, starting with Polymarket.
Closed service. We earn when you earn, and only then.
1 tick
at a time is how a good trader on these books actually earns it
Where it goes
The money is in the price you get.
A good trader on these markets earns a tick at a time. They stand in the order book and wait for the market to come to them. That price is reachable, and it goes to whoever stands there the same way.
Buy the same position at market and you pay the spread going in, then pay it again coming out. Repeat that on every trade your leader makes and their edge lands in someone else's pocket. Add a fee charged per trade rather than per profit, and a winning trader can hand you a losing month.
What we do with your pick
Your trader is one of our inputs.
You pick who to follow. Their record is public before you decide and public after, so you can check us against it whenever you want.
What we build on top is ours. We size the position against your capital, pick the price we are willing to pay, and read the book in front of us at the moment we place the order. When your leader's trade and that book disagree, we go with the book.
Every leader trades differently. We tune the strategy to the one you chose instead of running one setting for everyone.
one
leader, one strategy, tuned to how that leader actually trades
Inside the order
We place our own orders, and we choose where.
We rest limit orders by default. A resting order collects the spread that a market order hands over.
01
How deep the book runs
Liquidity behind the price decides whether a position can be left as easily as it was taken.
02
What sits ahead of us
Size in front of our order at the level we want tells us where in the queue we land, and whether the level is worth taking.
03
Which way the flow runs
Buying and selling at neighbouring prices tells us when to move an order out of the way rather than wait to be run over.
04
How far the spread has opened
A wide book and a thin one are different jobs. The width sets what we are willing to pay and how long we are willing to stand there for it.
05
We move for a reason
Chasing a price costs the queue position you already paid for. We reprice when the market gives us cause and leave the order alone when it does not.
06
We cross when waiting costs more
Sometimes taking the offer is cheaper than standing. We work that out fresh each time instead of fixing it in advance.
07
Deciding to place nothing counts as a decision
A market with nothing standing behind the price we want is a market we skip. The reads above set our price, and often enough they tell us to stay out of a market your leader is in.
Running live
What we can show you today.
One leader, one window, our account running a fraction of their size.
leader P&L vs ours · same window
chart pending · shape, not size
Read it for shape. We ran this on a small account, so a single position moves our line further than it moves theirs, and August is a quiet month on these markets. The claim here is that we track the trader you picked. We are not claiming a return.
How we get paid
We get paid out of profit.
We take a share of what we make for you. No fee per trade and no fee on a losing month.
We'll give you the number on the call.
Getting in
Closed, and your money stays yours.
01
We talk first
We run this for a small number of accounts, and we talk to every one of them before we start.
02
Your account, your funds
Your funds stay in your own account. How we set up access depends on your account, and we walk you through it on the call.
03
Separate from Pulse and News
Those two read markets and never touch a wallet. This one trades. Same company, different product, different access.
Where this goes
We built the execution layer first.
The next strategies drop the leader.
They quote on their own. The execution layer underneath stays the same, which is why we built that part first and why it is the part we are willing to talk about.
Prediction markets, wider than one venue.
We started with Polymarket because that is the market we know. We built the engine to move to another venue when there is a reason to.
Early, and honest about it
What we haven't proved.
We have been live for a short window, on small size, through a slow month. That is not a track record and we won't dress it up as one.
We can show you the execution and the tracking. We cannot show you a year of returns, because we do not have one. Anyone quoting you a yield on prediction markets is guessing. So would we be.
Questions
The ones you were going to ask.
Why not just point a copy bot at the same trader?
A copy bot sees the trade and buys at market. You pay the spread on the way in and again on the way out, and you pay the bot a cut of every trade whether it worked or not. The traders worth following earn a tick at a time, so that arithmetic runs against you from the first fill.
Do you take custody of my money?
Your funds sit in your own account. Setup varies by account, so we go through it on the call.
Which trader should I pick?
Bring one and we'll tell you what we think of it, or ask us and we'll show you who we would run. Their record on Polymarket is public either way, so you are not taking our word for it.
How much do I need?
Enough that position sizes stay meaningful after scaling down from the leader. We'll be straight with you on the call if your number is too small to work.
How is this different from Convicta Pulse?
Pulse watches markets and tells you what moved. This trades. Same company, separate product, separate access.
What happens when my leader has a bad month?
You take their bad month with them. We can improve the price you pay and the timing of your exits. We cannot turn a losing trader into a winning one, and we won't pretend otherwise.
Can I stop?
Yes, whenever you want. We agree how that works before we start.
Do you guarantee a return?
No. Nobody can, and anyone who does is selling you something else.
Request access
Closed access, by conversation.
Leave your email and we'll come back to set up a call. Bring your size and the trader you want to follow.
No newsletter. We write once, to set up a call.